شناسایی ابعاد مؤثر بر آینده‌نگاری برنامه‌ریزی شهری با رویکرد اقتصادی (مطالعه موردی: توسعه پایدار شهر قزوین)

This paper aims to identify effective aspects of forecasting on city management in order to illustrate opportunities and discover the advantages of available tools with economic approach. In terms of purpose, this research is applied, and in terms of data collection, it is descriptive-survey. Sampling method is purposeful and 10 experts were considered as sample size. Consolidated questionnaire was used for data collection. In order to measure validity of the questionnaire, convergent validity test was used. To check reliability, Cronbach’s alpha coefficient was calculated as 0.793. KMO and Bartlett’s tests, developed mean-variance approach t-test were used. To perform statistical operations, PLS and SPSS 17 were used. In this research, the indexes were identified by using Delphi technique and eight major indexes including quality of life, environmental thinking, transport, compatibility of economic environment, economic infrastructures of the society, economic health of the society, housing, and energy were selected and all hypotheses were confirmed. Finally, three types of forecasting were proposed. This paper tries to present a model for participatory forecast based on urban economy in city management (case study: city of Qazvin). However, three scenarios were proposed considering economic conditions of Qazvin entitled continuation of status, rapid growth and interconnectedness with the global economy, and balanced growth and interconnectedness with the global economy. Therefore, according to these scenarios, practical suggestions were proposed in line with much dynamism of Qazvin urban economy.